Will Typhoon Surigae (No. 26) hit Okinawa or Tokyo? Okinawa expects storm conditions 27–29 Sept; the track towards Tokyo and Osaka is not decided yet
This week's news · Checked 2026-09-26
What happened. Okinawa is in the path; for Tokyo and Osaka it is too early to say. Bernama-Kyodo reported on 25 September 2026 that Typhoon Surigae, the season's 26th, was moving towards Okinawa while strengthening and, depending on its path, could affect the weather on Honshu. In the Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast (JMA, issued 26 September, 18:45 JST), the storm was south of Okinawa at 18:00 JST at 990 hPa, moving north at 10 km/h with gusts of 40 m/s (≈ 144 km/h), up from 1,000 hPa early on Friday 25 September (Bernama-Kyodo).
The forecast after that. JMA expects it to become a "strong" typhoon about 130 km south-southeast of Naha at 18:00 JST on Sunday 27 September (975 hPa, gusts 50 m/s ≈ 180 km/h), and to reach 960 hPa with gusts of 60 m/s (≈ 216 km/h) about 100 km north-northwest of Minami-Daito Island at 15:00 JST on Monday 28 September. From 29 September to 1 October it moves slowly east-northeast, then northeast, "south of Japan" at 960–970 hPa. JMA's 70% probability circle for 15:00 JST on 1 October has a radius of 460 km, wide enough to reach the Pacific coast of Honshu, so the Tokyo and Osaka side is still open.
What local forecasters say. The Japan Weather Association (tenki.jp, 26 September 12:03 JST) warns that, depending on the track, Okinawa's main island may see storm conditions from 27 to around 29 September (the Daito Islands on 28–29), with possible warning-level storm surge on 27–29 and warning-level heavy rain on 28–29. Many models take the storm south of Honshu, but its speed is uncertain; an autumn rain front over Honshu means rain can intensify next week even if the typhoon stays away. All of this is a forecast and will change; JMA updates it several times a day.
What it means for you.
- Okinawa, 27–29 September: flights to and from Naha and ferries to the outer islands are likely to be delayed or cancelled. Check the airline app the night before; if the airline offers a free date change for this typhoon, use it. Leave beach and snorkelling days until the sea calms down.
- Tokyo or Osaka, 30 September to 2 October: no reason to cancel yet. Check the JMA forecast again on 28–29 September, when the track after Okinawa is clearer, and keep one indoor plan ready because the rain front can bring rain either way.
- Rooms for those dates: pick one you can cancel free, so you can move a night if the track shifts: Tokyo hotels for 2 adults + 2 kids on Trip.com (filter "free cancellation"; prices vary by date, checked 26 Sept 2026).
- October is still typhoon season. Surigae follows Typhoon No. 25 Dujuan, which brought heavy rain and wind to the Tokyo area on 21 September ([what happened](/news-typhoon-25-dujuan/)). See [Japan weather by month](/japan-weather-by-month/) when choosing dates.
Affiliate links may be used; your price does not change. Sources: Bernama-Kyodo, 25 September 2026 (English); JMA typhoon information, issued 26 September 2026 18:45 JST (Japanese and English); Japan Weather Association (tenki.jp), 26 September 2026 12:03 JST (Japanese). This is a forecast and will change. Checked 26 September 2026 evening.