Typhoon 29 (Koguma) now east of Japan, moving away and weakening; a low by 15 Oct

This week's news · Checked 2026-09-26

Update 13 October 2026 — Typhoon 29 (Koguma) is moving away from Japan. In JMA's information shown on tenki.jp at 09:00 JST on 13 October, Typhoon No. 29 (Koguma) was east of Japan at 980 hPa (yesterday 955 hPa; maximum wind 30 m/s, gusts 45 m/s), moving east-north-east at 45 km/h. JMA forecasts it far east of Japan by 21:00 JST tonight, then an extratropical low moving further north-east by 09:00 JST on 15 October. Seas along its track remain rough. It did not hit Tokyo or Osaka. No other typhoon is on JMA's list today.

Update 12 October 2026 — Typhoon 29 (Koguma) is at Ogasawara today, then heads east. In JMA's information shown on tenki.jp at 09:00 JST on 12 October, Typhoon No. 29 (Koguma) was a "very strong" typhoon at 955 hPa (yesterday 950 hPa; maximum wind 45 m/s, gusts 60 m/s) near the Ogasawara Islands, moving north at 25 km/h. JMA forecasts it east of Japan by 09:00 JST on 13 October and an extratropical low far east of Japan by 09:00 JST on 14 October. JMA warns of storms and heavy rain along the track and rough seas. Typhoon No. 28 is no longer on JMA's typhoon list. JMA's summary doesn't mention Tokyo; if you fly to Tokyo on 12–13 October, check with your airline the day before — ferries to Ogasawara are the most affected.

Update 11 October 2026 — Typhoon 29 (Koguma) is stronger, but weakens a day earlier. In JMA's information shown on tenki.jp at 09:00 JST on 11 October, Typhoon No. 29 (Koguma) was a "very strong" typhoon at 950 hPa (yesterday 955 hPa; maximum wind 45 m/s, gusts 65 m/s) near Minamitorishima, moving north-west at 20 km/h. JMA forecasts it near the Ogasawara Islands at 09:00 JST on 12 October, east of Japan at 09:00 JST on 13 October, and an extratropical low far east of Japan by 09:00 JST on 14 October (yesterday: 15 October). Typhoon No. 28 (998 hPa) is east of Japan, moving slowly north and becoming a tropical depression by 12 October. JMA warns of storms and heavy rain along the track (Ogasawara) and very rough seas. JMA's summary doesn't say how close it comes to Tokyo; if you fly to Tokyo on 12–13 October, check with your airline the day before.

Update 10 October 2026 — Typhoon 29 is now "very strong"; watch 12–13 October. In JMA's information shown on tenki.jp at 09:00 JST on 10 October, Typhoon No. 29 was a "very strong" typhoon at 955 hPa (yesterday 970 hPa) near Minamitorishima, moving west-north-west at 25 km/h. JMA now forecasts it east of Japan around 09:00 JST on 13 October (a day earlier than yesterday's forecast), then becoming an extratropical low east of the Kuril Islands by 09:00 JST on 15 October. Typhoon No. 28 (994 hPa) is east of Japan, moving away and becoming an extratropical low. How close Typhoon 29 comes to Tokyo is not clear yet. If you fly to Tokyo on 12–14 October, check your airline the day before.

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Update 9 October 2026 — watch Typhoon 29 for 12–14 October. In JMA's information shown on tenki.jp at 09:00 JST on 9 October, Typhoon No. 29 was a "strong" typhoon at 970 hPa (yesterday 990 hPa) near Minamitorishima, moving west-north-west at 20 km/h. JMA forecasts it near the Ogasawara Islands around 09:00 JST on 12 October (a day earlier than yesterday's forecast), then turning north-north-east and reaching east of Japan around 09:00 JST on 14 October. Typhoon No. 28 has weakened to 992 hPa; JMA still forecasts it east of Japan around 09:00 JST on 10 October and an extratropical low by 09:00 JST on 11 October. How close Typhoon 29 comes to Tokyo is not clear yet. If you fly to Tokyo on 12–15 October, check your airline the day before.

Update 8 October 2026 — Typhoon 28 a day earlier and weaker; a new Typhoon 29. In JMA's information shown on tenki.jp at 09:00 JST on 8 October, Typhoon No. 28 was near Minamitorishima at 985 hPa (yesterday 975 hPa), moving west-north-west at 35 km/h. JMA now forecasts it east of Japan around 09:00 JST on 10 October (a day earlier than yesterday's forecast), then turning north and becoming an extratropical low by 09:00 JST on 11 October. A new Typhoon No. 29 (990 hPa) near Wake Island is moving north-north-west at 20 km/h and is forecast near Minamitorishima on 11 October and near the Ogasawara Islands around 09:00 JST on 13 October. How close either comes to Tokyo is not clear yet. If you fly to Tokyo on 10–14 October, check your airline the day before.

Update 7 October 2026 — Choi-wan has gone; Typhoon 28 is a little weaker. In JMA's information shown on tenki.jp at 09:00 JST on 7 October, Choi-wan (No. 27) was east of Japan at 975 hPa, moving north-north-east at 65 km/h, forecast to be east of the Kuril Islands at 21:00 JST tonight and near the Aleutian Islands by 09:00 JST on 8 October as it becomes an extratropical low. Typhoon No. 28 was "strong" at 975 hPa (yesterday "very strong", 965 hPa) near Wake Island, moving west at 40 km/h; JMA still forecasts it near Minamitorishima at 09:00 JST on 8 October and east of Japan around 09:00 JST on 11 October. How close it comes to Tokyo is not clear yet. If you fly to Tokyo on 10–12 October, check your airline the day before.

Update 6 October 2026 — Choi-wan leaves tonight; watch Typhoon 28 for 10–11 October. In JMA's information shown on tenki.jp at 09:00 JST on 6 October, Choi-wan was a "strong", "large" typhoon near the Ogasawara Islands (950 hPa, weaker than yesterday's 925 hPa), moving north at 30 km/h. JMA now forecasts it to reach east of Japan around 21:00 JST tonight (6 October) — earlier than yesterday's forecast of 09:00 JST on 7 October — and then to become an extratropical low near the Aleutian Islands by 09:00 JST on 8 October. The centre stays far east of Tokyo. Typhoon No. 28 is now "very strong" (965 hPa) near Wake Island, moving west at 25 km/h; JMA forecasts it near Minamitorishima at 09:00 JST on 8 October and east of Japan around 09:00 JST on 11 October. How close it comes to Tokyo is not clear yet. If you fly to Tokyo on 10–12 October, check your airline the day before; this page will follow JMA.

Update 5 October 2026 — Choi-wan reaches 925 hPa. In JMA's information shown on tenki.jp at 09:00 JST on 5 October, Choi-wan was a "very strong", "large" typhoon near the Ogasawara Islands (925 hPa, maximum winds 50 m/s, gusts 70 m/s), moving north-northwest at 20 km/h. JMA forecasts it to reach east of Japan around 09:00 JST on 7 October and then become an extratropical low. The centre stays far east of Tokyo. A new Typhoon No. 28 is near the Midway Islands (960 hPa), forecast to reach east of Japan around 09:00 JST on 10 October; Typhoon No. 29 is a weak storm over the Marshall Islands. If you fly to Tokyo on 6–7 October, check your airline the day before; Ogasawara ferries and Pacific-coast seas are the places most affected.

Update 4 October 2026 (06:45 JST) — Choi-wan is now "very strong". In JMA's information of 4 October, 06:45 JST (via tenki.jp), Choi-wan was a "very strong", "large" typhoon near the Ogasawara Islands at 03:00 JST (945 hPa, maximum winds 45 m/s, gusts 60 m/s), moving northeast at 15 km/h. JMA forecasts it to move north near the Ogasawara Islands until 6 October, to reach east of Japan by 03:00 JST on 7 October, and to become an extratropical low east of the Kuril Islands by 03:00 JST on 8 October. (JMA's 00:45 forecast had it a few hours earlier; the 06:45 track is close to the 3 October one.) The centre stays far east of Tokyo. If you fly to Tokyo on 5–7 October, check your airline the day before; Ogasawara ferries and Pacific-coast seas are the places most affected.

Update 3 October 2026 — Typhoon No. 27 Choi-wan. In JMA's information of 3 October, 06:45 JST, Choi-wan was a "strong", "large" typhoon over the Mariana Islands at 06:00 JST (18.1°N 144.9°E, 970 hPa, maximum winds 35 m/s, gusts 50 m/s ≈ 180 km/h). JMA forecasts it to be "very strong" near the Ogasawara Islands from 4 to 6 October (lowest 925 hPa at 03:00 JST on 5 October, gusts 70 m/s), then east of Japan at 03:00 JST on 7 October (36.6°N 148.7°E, 950 hPa), becoming an extratropical low east of the Kuril Islands by 03:00 JST on 8 October. Compared with yesterday's forecast for 7 October (33.2°N 145.5°E), the track is now further northeast — the centre stays far east of Tokyo. For flights into Tokyo on 5–8 October: no sign of major disruption so far, but check with your airline the day before.

What happened. Okinawa is in the path; for Tokyo and Osaka it is too early to say. Bernama-Kyodo reported on 25 September 2026 that Typhoon Surigae, the season's 26th, was moving towards Okinawa while strengthening and, depending on its path, could affect the weather on Honshu. In the Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast (JMA, issued 26 September, 18:45 JST), the storm was south of Okinawa at 18:00 JST at 990 hPa, moving north at 10 km/h with gusts of 40 m/s (≈ 144 km/h), up from 1,000 hPa early on Friday 25 September (Bernama-Kyodo).

Update 27 September 2026. Tokyo and Osaka look less exposed than on 26 September; Okinawa gets the closest pass tonight. In JMA's latest issue (27 September, 06:45 JST), Surigae was a "strong" typhoon about 210 km south of Naha at 06:00 JST (975 hPa, gusts 50 m/s ≈ 180 km/h), moving north-northeast at 15 km/h. Ryukyu Shimpo (27 September, 07:39 JST, citing the Okinawa weather office) expects the closest pass to Okinawa's main island from the night of 27 September into the early hours of 28 September, with a storm warning possible for the main island on the afternoon of 27 September and for the Daito Islands on the afternoon of 28 September. JMA puts it about 170 km east of Naha at 03:00 JST on 28 September, reaching 960 hPa with gusts of 60 m/s (≈ 216 km/h), then moving northeast "south of Japan" until 2 October.

Update 2 October 2026 (last update for No. 26). Surigae is over: in JMA's information of 2 October, 03:50 JST, it became an extratropical low east of Japan at 03:00 JST (1002 hPa, moving east-northeast at 55 km/h). It did not hit Tokyo or Osaka. Next: Typhoon No. 27, Choi-wan. JMA (2 October, 06:45 JST) puts it over the Mariana Islands at 990 hPa, then "very strong" near the Ogasawara Islands from 4 to 6 October (lowest 925 hPa forecast for 03:00 JST on 5 October), and east of Japan at 03:00 JST on 7 October (33.2°N 145.5°E, 960 hPa). That centre is well east of Tokyo, but five-day forecast circles are wide: if you fly into Tokyo between 5 and 8 October, re-check JMA and your airline the day before.

Update 1 October 2026. The typhoon is moving away from Japan. In JMA's information of 1 October, 06:45 JST (via tenki.jp), Surigae was about 50 km southeast of Hachijojima at 1002 hPa with maximum winds of 18 m/s, moving northeast at 15 km/h. Forecast: about 280 km east of Choshi (Chiba) at 18:00 JST today, and becoming a low (no longer a typhoon) east of Japan at 06:00 JST on 2 October. For Tokyo and Osaka, this typhoon does not hit; for the Izu Islands, re-check ferries and island flights today.

Update 30 September 2026. Weaker, and heading east. In JMA's information of 30 September, 06:45 JST (via tenki.jp), Surigae was south of Japan at 06:00 JST at 996 hPa with maximum winds of 20 m/s, moving east-northeast at 15 km/h. Forecast: about 150 km southwest of Aogashima at 18:00 JST today, about 80 km northeast of Aogashima at 06:00 JST on 1 October, and becoming a low (no longer a typhoon) east of Japan by 03:00 JST on 2 October. Weathernews (30 September, 05:23 JST) says the typhoon is approaching the Izu Islands, where the weather worsens towards the evening, while Kanto stays rainy. If you fly into Haneda or Narita on 30 Sept–1 Oct, check your flight status; if you plan to visit the Izu Islands (Oshima, Hachijojima), check ferries and island flights.

Update 29 September 2026. Weaker, and passing a little closer. In JMA's issue of 29 September, 06:50 JST, Surigae was south of Japan at 06:00 JST with 985 hPa (maximum sustained wind 30 m/s, gusts 45 m/s), no longer rated "strong". JMA now puts the centre "near the Izu Islands" at 03:00 JST on 1 October (992 hPa), then east of Japan on 2 October and an extratropical low east of the Kuril Islands by 03:00 JST on 3 October. The storm-warning area shown by JMA ends with the forecast for 06:00 JST on 30 September; none is drawn for 1 October. Our calculation from JMA's coordinates: the 1 October centre is about 350 km from Tokyo, about 480 km from Osaka and about 70 km from Hachijojima. Weathernews (29 September, 06:25 JST) says the typhoon's strong winds cover a relatively small area and its direct impact on Honshu should be small, but warns of storms and high waves around the Izu Islands from 30 September to 1 October, and that rain in Kanto may continue until the morning of 30 September.

Update 28 September 2026. The core still stays south of Honshu; Okinawa had cancellations. In JMA's issue of 28 September, 08:45 JST, Surigae was a "very strong" typhoon about 90 km north-northwest of Minami-Daito Island at 08:00 JST (945 hPa, maximum sustained wind 50 m/s, gusts 70 m/s ≈ 252 km/h), moving east-northeast at 20 km/h. JMA then moves it "south of Japan" (970 hPa at 03:00 JST on 30 September, 985 hPa at 03:00 JST on 1 October), "east of Japan" by 03:00 JST on 2 October (992 hPa), and expects it to become an extratropical low near the Kuril Islands by 03:00 JST on 3 October. Our calculation from JMA's coordinates: the forecast centre for 03:00 JST on 1 October is about 460 km from both Tokyo and Osaka, outside JMA's storm-warning area (radius 380 km); the edge of the 70% probability circle (radius 300 km) comes to about 160 km from Tokyo. The Izu Islands, including Hachijojima (about 200 km from that centre), are inside the storm-warning area.

What happened in Okinawa. ANA cancelled 24 flights on 27 September, including Naha–Fukuoka, affecting about 4,200 people (Ryukyu Shimpo, 28 September, 05:40 JST). Ryukyu Air Commuter cancelled 5 flights on 27 September and 9 on 28 September (Naha–Minami-Daito and others; 167 and 208 people), and at least 80 ferry sailings between Okinawa's main island or Ishigaki and nearby islands were cancelled on 27 September (Okinawa Times, 27 September 22:35 JST, updated 28 September 07:58 JST). We could not confirm whether all main-line flights between Naha and mainland Japan are running on 28 September; check your airline app.

Tokyo, Osaka and the airlines (27 September). Weathernews (27 September, 05:46 JST) says that in the latest forecast the core does not come very close to Honshu; the very wide forecast circle for 30 September–1 October shows uncertainty about the storm's speed, not its size. The autumn rain front sitting along Honshu's south coast can still bring heavier rain while the typhoon passes to the south. ANA is offering free changes and refunds for flights to and from Naha on 27–28 September, whether or not they fly; JAL's waiver covers only smaller islands (Kikai, Tokunoshima, Okinoerabu and Yoron on 28 September; Kita-Daito and Minami-Daito on 28–29 September), and Naha is not on its list (TRAICY, 26 September).

The forecast after that. JMA expects it to become a "strong" typhoon about 130 km south-southeast of Naha at 18:00 JST on Sunday 27 September (975 hPa, gusts 50 m/s ≈ 180 km/h), and to reach 960 hPa with gusts of 60 m/s (≈ 216 km/h) about 100 km north-northwest of Minami-Daito Island at 15:00 JST on Monday 28 September. From 29 September to 1 October it moves slowly east-northeast, then northeast, "south of Japan" at 960–970 hPa. JMA's 70% probability circle for 15:00 JST on 1 October has a radius of 460 km, wide enough to reach the Pacific coast of Honshu, so the Tokyo and Osaka side is still open.

What local forecasters say. The Japan Weather Association (tenki.jp, 26 September 12:03 JST) warns that, depending on the track, Okinawa's main island may see storm conditions from 27 to around 29 September (the Daito Islands on 28–29), with possible warning-level storm surge on 27–29 and warning-level heavy rain on 28–29. Many models take the storm south of Honshu, but its speed is uncertain; an autumn rain front over Honshu means rain can intensify next week even if the typhoon stays away. All of this is a forecast and will change; JMA updates it several times a day.

What it means for you.

• Okinawa, 27–29 September: flights to and from Naha and ferries to the outer islands are likely to be delayed or cancelled. Check the airline app the night before; if the airline offers a free date change for this typhoon, use it. Leave beach and snorkelling days until the sea calms down.
• Tokyo or Osaka, 30 September to 2 October: no reason to cancel (JMA forecast of 28 September). Keep one indoor plan ready: the Japan Weather Association (tenki.jp, 26 September) warns that Kanto can get heavy rain from the rain front even without a direct hit. Izu Islands ferries and flights around 30 September–1 October are the ones to watch. Tokyo has also had rain on 34 days in a row (what it means).
• Rooms for those dates: pick one you can cancel free, so you can move a night if the track shifts: Tokyo hotels for 2 adults + 2 kids on Trip.com (filter "free cancellation"; prices vary by date, checked 26 Sept 2026).
• October is still typhoon season. Surigae follows Typhoon No. 25 Dujuan, which brought heavy rain and wind to the Tokyo area on 21 September (what happened). See Japan weather by month when choosing dates.

Affiliate links may be used; your price does not change. Sources: Bernama-Kyodo, 25 September 2026 (English); JMA typhoon information, issued 26 September 2026 18:45 JST (Japanese and English); Japan Weather Association (tenki.jp), 26 September 2026 12:03 JST (Japanese). Update: JMA typhoon information, issued 27 September 2026 06:45 JST (via tenki.jp, Japanese); Ryukyu Shimpo, 27 September 2026 07:39 JST (Japanese); Weathernews, 27 September 2026 05:46 JST (Japanese); TRAICY, 26 September 2026 (English). This is a forecast and will change. Update 28 September: JMA typhoon information, issued 28 September 2026 08:45 JST (Japanese); Ryukyu Shimpo, 28 September 2026 05:40 JST (Japanese); Okinawa Times, 27 September 2026 22:35 JST, updated 28 September 07:58 JST (Japanese). Distances are our own calculation from JMA's forecast coordinates. Update 29 September: JMA typhoon information, issued 29 September 2026 06:50 JST (Japanese); Weathernews, 29 September 2026 06:25 JST (Japanese). Update 30 September: JMA typhoon information, issued 30 September 2026 06:45 JST (via tenki.jp, Japanese); Weathernews, 30 September 2026 05:23 JST (Japanese). Update 1 October: JMA typhoon information, issued 1 October 2026 06:45 JST (via tenki.jp, Japanese). Checked 26 September 2026 evening; updated 1 October 2026 morning. Update 3 October: JMA typhoon information, issued 3 October 2026 06:45 JST (jma.go.jp, Japanese).